Warning and Threat

Phase 1 A few days Infographic

The first phase is characterised by fear and uncertainty: there are signs that a crisis is coming, but the magnitude and impact are unknown.

In this stage, different reactions and experiences depend on the kind of disaster: some crises have no warning, like a terror attack; others, like typhoons, might have days of warning allowing people to prepare themselves. Meanwhile, in a pandemic like Covid-19, while some people are taking actions to prevent infection, others elsewhere are fighting for their lives. Previous crisis experiences also strongly influence the reaction of the impacted community. For example, some communities that had experienced earlier epidemics like Sars and Mers, such as those in South Korea and Taiwan, used the time wisely, whilst others in Europe and the Americas ignored the real danger.

The inability to cope with uncertainty and fear can lead to denial, and in this period we often see signs of panic in some people. This can be characterised by a strong “me and my family first attitude”, exemplified by hoarding, panic buying, bunkering down or fleeing. The looming crisis can also lead to disorientation – the ability of people to make sense of the situation and know how to behave. People search for answers by watching how others act and so when the media focuses on extreme behaviour like panic buying, this can easily lead to more people doing the same.

The messages that affected groups are exposed to can also influence the narratives and norms of the crisis to come. In this phase, people build on the previously established social norms to find acceptable new rules for the emergency, such as how to communicate on social media or how to share and support each other (or not). These can be built on already established rules in the community, or on ones established during previous crises.

Impact

Phase two is characterised by a range of intense emotional reactions – initial confusion and disbelief are typically followed by a focus on self-preservation and family protection.

Phase 2 A few days Infographic

In a typical disaster, the ‘Impact’ phase is short: an earthquake or a typhoon hits and then passes. This is also true for human-made disasters like industrial accidents or terror attacks. In longer-lasting crises such as a pandemic, the ‘Impact’ phase can not only be extended, but can also overlap with the other stages of a crisis. In a pandemic, the ‘Impact’ phase may be felt in the different infection waves, while in a drought the impact could be the moment of crop failure. In these longer crises, the impacts tend to be less synchronised, for example, people get sick or lose loved ones over a period of months. Nevertheless, communities and whole societies can also experience a shared ‘Impact’ phase, such as a health care system breakdown, or enforced emergency measures, like a lockdown.

Heroic

During the “Heroic” phase, survivors take risks to rescue and support others and we see the emergence of a new collective social identity moulded by a shared experience of the disaster.

Phase 3 A few days Infographic

The ‘Heroic’ phase usually only lasts a few days. Long before emergency forces can reach a disaster area, neighbours become essential first responders, providing physical and emotional support. They rescue people from rooftops or collapsed buildings, administer first aid or provide shelter and food for those who have lost everything. In the ‘Heroic’ phase, the perception that “we are in this together” emerges. This new identity creates mutual willingness, expectations and norms within the ‘disaster community’ to help and care for each other. These communities are naturally inclusive – everybody who has suffered from the crisis can form part of it. This new shared identity boosts altruism throughout the impacted community whilst other emotional drivers, such as the desire to regain agency, also motivate people to take more actions to support or rescue others. As these actions are often driven by emotions instead of rational thought, they can lead to people taking unnecessary risks, and be limited in their effectiveness. For example, people may help each other in an epidemic without having the necessary protection gear, or they may limit more strategic responses, as was seen in community organised oxygen drive-bys during the Covid-19 pandemic in India, which limited the ability to prioritise oxygen access to the most vulnerable.

In this phase, people are still making sense of the new situation and adjusting their behaviour accordingly. As old norms and narratives are rendered unfit for the present, new norms rapidly emerge. Communities start to make sense of the situation by building on the collective experience and identities are formed in the early hours of the crisis.

Honeymoon

In the “Honeymoon” phase, community cohesion is at its highest. Altruistic action shifts from risk-taking to caring as prosocial behaviour becomes the norm.

Phase 4 A few weeks Infographic

The “Honeymoon” stage usually lasts a few weeks and this is the time when helping the impacted community becomes a common purpose. This help can come from the community itself, from rescuers, or even from bystanders who have not been impacted. Within the impacted communities their social identity as a “disaster community” is now strong, reinforced by the sharing of resources, time, stories and experiences. This builds new forms of cooperation and inclusiveness, leading to the emergence of new norms and narratives. Selfish behaviour still prevails in some individuals but it tends to be seen as going against the norm. If still operational, social media is filled with content documenting these shared experiences, often with a high degree of creativity, humour and empathy, as was seen in the diverse “lockdown videos” during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The community of crisis survivors experiences a feeling of inclusivity that they had never felt in “normal” times. They become part of an empathetic, inclusive and equal society that they didn’t imagine was possible. This can even lead to their memories of the crisis being filled with joy and positivity despite the loss or chaos they experienced.

During this time of high social support and creativity, altruistic initiatives flourish. For instance, during the first Covid-19 wave in Europe people came out to applaud frontline health workers, and during the ‘Honeymoon’ phase in India’s first wave there were multiple initiatives to support migrant workers. Meanwhile, neighbourhood pantries were set up in the Philippines to help the local community during the pandemic.

The large amounts of attention on the impacted community can also increase the amount of support flowing in from the outside, restoring hope for a fast recovery. It is also a phase when we witness a very strong “abundance mindset” with people believing there are enough resources to share with the community. Meanwhile, participation in local actions provides the feeling of agency and, as a consequence, of regaining control over the crisis itself. During the ’Honeymoon’ phase, initiatives can be created that continue throughout the following stages of the crisis, even if the public and media are no longer paying attention.

However, the surge in altruism and community inclusiveness is often wrongly interpreted as a communal shift in values. It is, in fact, the creation of a temporary ‘disaster identity’, which is also supported by a shift from people thinking about future wellbeing to just getting through one day at a time.

As the impacts of the crisis on day-to-day life diminish, so the importance of the community’s “disaster identity” fades, for example, when the floods recede or the state of emergency ends. In this period, old identities from “normal” times, such as professional, racial or political identities, regain importance. When people experience inequality in the impacted community this temporary identity can fade even quicker, for example, if elites have privileged access to resources, or some people lose their jobs while others don’t. The “Honeymoon” phase relies strongly upon a sense of “generalised reciprocity”², and so when the community feels this has been violated, their belief in this new “inclusive” society falters.

While it is not common, if social division appears early on in the crisis and a new inclusive social identity cannot be created, communities may skip the ‘Honeymoon’ phase altogether, moving directly to the ‘Disillusionment’ phase. The extent and strength of the ‘Honeymoon ’phase strongly depends on the social capital of the community or the rescue and support teams. If rescue operations are poor, if impacted communities are considered a threat to public control or communities are already strongly polarised and unequal, survival mindsets can kick in.

As quickly as the ‘Honeymoon’ phase appears, it will fade and in just a few weeks can give way to the ‘Disillusionment’ phase.

Disillusionment

When optimism turns into discouragement and the inclusive disaster community breaks down.

Phase 5 A few months Infographic

During this phase, which usually lasts for months, people often perceive the crisis or its aftermath as uncontrollable, losing their sense of agency. Fear, depression, anxiety, anger and frustration increase and people switch from an “abundance mindset” to a “scarcity mindset“³. This notion of scarcity can be triggered by a decrease in access to resources, limited freedom, social contact, or just dwindling personal energy due to the enduring stress of the crisis.

While the “Honeymoon” phase sees an increase in compassion, in the “Disillusionment” phase it tends to decrease as people revert back to traditional identities and smaller ingroups like family and friends. People also start to look for others to blame for their prolonged suffering, and we see an increase in fragmentation and polarisation. By now, people begin to get tired of reading about the crisis and so the media coverage decreases. Meanwhile on social media, while some move from sharing experiences to sharing conspiracy theories, others start to turn their attention away from the crisis in search of distraction.

People’s perspective moves from the present to the future, creating room for planning and expectations, but also for failure and disappointment. The long lockdowns witnessed during the Covid-19 pandemic are a good example of the grinding pressure of the ‘Disillusionment’ phase and how it can lead to a significant increase in mental health problems. Meanwhile, after natural disasters, disillusionment sets in when people realise that rebuilding their community will take much longer than they initially thought, as was the case in Haiti following the 2010 earthquake.

This phase can also be prolonged by what are known as triggering events or aftershocks. For example, when the testing of a contaminated site after a nuclear or chemical accident shows that evacuated communities will not be able to return to their homes, or news about new variants of a virus, or delays in vaccination during a pandemic.

Some aftershocks can be so great that they take the whole community back to the ‘Impact’ phase and through phases two to five again. This could be a repetition of the first initial disaster such as a second seismic shock after an earthquake, or an unexpectedly strong infection wave in an epidemic. Aftershocks can also include other disruptions related to the initial disaster, like an economic crisis or social unrest.

While this phase is influenced by external factors, it is largely determined by the perceptions and attitudes of the impacted community, comparable to the stages of grief one needs to go through before reaching acceptance. When acceptance is reached, people can move on to the ‘Recovery’ phase.

Recovery

This phase is characterised by a feeling of moving on: individuals and communities begin to assume responsibility for rebuilding their lives, and people adjust to a “new normal”.

Phase 6 A few years Infographic

The “Recovery” stage can take years, with all of the emotions, perceptions, narratives and norms that were built up and negotiated during the crisis (see The Disrupted Mind: Scientific Insights) shaping the years that follow.

Even though on the surface life might resemble that of pre-disaster times, the crisis will have resulted in significant shifts in the mindsets of the survivors. In the US, the 2008 financial crisis not only created a whole new “wandering tribe” of seasonal workers, but also fostered the anti-elite mindset that paved the way for Donald Trump eight years later. In the Covid-19 crisis, some countries may have entered the ‘Recovery’ phase through vaccination, while others continue to experience significant aftershocks, or are still struggling to contain the first ones. This leads to a strong disparity in the stages of disaster between rich and poor nations, locking the latter in the ‘Disillusionment’ phase.

People’s perspective moves from the present to the future, creating room for planning and expectations, but also for failure and disappointment. The long lockdowns witnessed during the Covid-19 pandemic are a good example of the grinding pressure of the ‘Disillusionment’ phase and how it can lead to a significant increase in mental health problems. Meanwhile, after natural disasters, disillusionment sets in when people realise that rebuilding their community will take much longer than they initially thought, as was the case in Haiti following the 2010 earthquake.