The Polycrisis has a profound effect on people’s lives. Economic issues such as high inflation and job insecurity have broken people’s faith in abundance – a once-common globalisation narrative that we would all get more prosperous together.
In the nine countries we studied in the Anger & Agency Monitor a minority still believes in this abundance narrative. This ranges from only 20% in South Korea to 40% in Indonesia. Instead, an increasing majority believe in scarcity. In this world of increasing scarcity, a perception of winners and losers is taking hold.
To better understand how this reality affects your audience, we created three segments based on people’s perception of wealth. The group this paper focuses on, The Precarious, represent a critical audience that is reshaping societies around the world. Whether working on climate, democracy, inequality or other issues, changemakers can no longer afford to overlook them.
Except for India, the newly emerging and growing Precarious make up between one-third and two-thirds of the population, while only around one-fifth consider themselves prosperous. Notably, the Precarious are found across all income groups. However, the most striking finding is that no other demographic factor has such a defining impact on people’s emotions and beliefs, whether gender, age, absolute income, education, or area of residence (rural or urban).
Not only does the perception of wealth development create distinct groups within each country, but the way the Precarious see the world is strikingly similar across all the countries we surveyed. This segment is, therefore, essential for any communication in the context of the polycrisis.
In the following pages, we outline some of the key characteristics of the Precarious. In the second part of the Precarious Mind, we will outline ways to engage with this important audience.
The majority of the Precarious believe that global economic turmoil is the crisis that has impacted them most. Even those who consider issues such as war or climate change to be the most important still report feeling the greatest impact on their economic well-being.
In addition, more Precarious see increasing prosperity as both a personal and governmental priority compared to the other two groups. Significantly more Precarious also subscribe to a competitive scarcity narrative than the other segments. This mindset can lead to polarisation and weaken a country’s social fabric.
Clear differences emerge between the three wealth segments: more Prosperous believe in an abundance mindset, while the Stable are more likely to hold a fair scarcity mindset. This pattern is consistent across all surveyed countries.
One of the stand-out insights from the research is the sharp decline in the Precarious’ sense of personal and political power compared to the Prosperous and Stable. Across all countries, this group feels significantly less able to influence politics. This also leads to lower political engagement in Brazil and South Eastern Europe.
Even more concerning is the Precarious’ sense of losing control over their personal lives. This feeling of personal powerlessness is strongly linked to what we identify as Toxic Anger Types, which drive fragmentation, polarisation and aggression in societies.
The Precarious consistently show higher levels of negative and lower levels of positive emotions when compared to the Stable and Prosperous groups. In most countries, they express stronger anger toward the dominant issues that cause anger, such as government corruption and the impact of inflation. The exception is Indonesia, where the Prosperous report greater anger on these topics. The Precarious are also more likely to blame political elites and national governments than other wealth segments. In fact, between 55% and 78% of them attribute blame to political elites.
However, the New Precarious are restraining their anger more. Compared to the Stable and Prosperous, the Precarious consider anger a negative emotion and act more introverted. In countries that praise individualistic opportunities and responsibilities, a decline in economic well-being doesn’t just lead to anger—our working theory, which we will explore deeper in future research, is that it may also trigger feelings of shame. This would result in people suppressing their anger rather than expressing it.
But the anger doesn’t go away. Instead, it may resurface in the voting booth: elections in our current world are silent outlets for introverted anger. This can drive people to vote against governments rather than for a party in elections. This restrained anger can also be ignited and guided towards specific targets if one frees people from their shame. For now, this strategy is primarily used by populists.
The New Precarious view the world as significantly more uncertain, and they worry more about that uncertainty than other groups. They are also notably less optimistic and more nostalgic than the Stable and Prosperous segments. This nostalgia reflects a longing for better times, a sentiment that has been widely exploited by “Make [Country] Great Again”- narratives across the globe.
The research identifies the Precarious as a new persona—not defined by absolute poverty, but by a sense of having lost something they once had. They feel they are losing (control) in today’s uncertain world. They are worried and exhausted. They lack hope and optimism. They are angry, feeling left behind by governments and the elites. They feel powerless to change their situation and even ashamed.
With no signs that the Polycrisis will be solved any time soon, these experiences of uncertainty and loss will become more common. We should expect that the Precarious will also grow in size, becoming an increasingly influential but dormant political force waiting to be unleashed. Unleashing its power should not be left to right-wing populists. It is time that changemakers help the Precarious to find their own voice.
There are two critical ways to unleash the power of the Precarious:
– Empowering them to take back control over their lives
– Removing shame and building pride
In the past, these processes have mainly been used to convert Restrained Anger into Toxic Anger. This has been done by building a sense of pride and empowerment at the cost of other parts of society, be it immigrants or gender groups, giving rise to autocratic and right-leaning political elites. Toxic Anger has become the default option, commercialised by a powerful narrative ecosystem declaring a culture war from the rooftops.
However, there is no reason why the very same processes can not also be used to build Constructive Anger—Anger directed at injustice and leading to constructive outcomes. Turning rage into Constructive Anger is not only one of the best opportunities to mobilise audiences in the polycrisis but also a necessity to build the social capital required to foster societal resilience for the challenges to come.
Ways to do this can be found in Part II of the Precarious Mind: Recommendations.
Text by: Stefan Flothmann, Editing by: Robin Perkins, Design by Justine Arcilla, Cover photo by Sandip Karangiya on Unsplash, Back cover photo Fajar Grinanda on Unsplash.
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